The number of diagnosed cases of COVID in the Revelstoke Local Health Area (LHA) continues to rise rapidly, jumping to 33 in the latest weekly recording period, a 175% increase since a week ago.
The latest weekly recording period, epi-week 32, covered from Aug. 8-14. In the previous week, Aug. 1-7, there were 12 cases.
It is the second-highest weekly total for the Revelstoke LHA since the start of the pandemic, and the case rate continues to rise. The previous weekly high was epi-week 53 last year, between Dec. 27, 2020–Jan 2, 2021, when there were 37 cases recorded.
BC COVID Modelling Group predicts continued rise
The BC Covid Modelling Group, a group of mostly UBC and SFU academics and experts with a deep basket of credentials related to modelling disease, released its latest forecasts, models and predictions for B.C. on Aug. 18. (Read about the group members' bona fides here.)
The group works on rapid response modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on B.C. The modelling group also offers independent advice to the B.C. government.
Their latest report finds that for the past five weeks infection rates have been growing exponentially through B.C., doubling every nine days, or 8% each day.
They predict that hospitalizations and ICU occupancy will "soon rapidly increase."
They also created a data-based analysis of recent assertions by provincial health authorities that infections and ICU hospitalizations would "decouple" because of protection afforded by vaccination.
"Hospitalization and ICU demand are non 'decoupled' from case numbers," they wrote. "[The] fraction of cases leading to hospitalization has not declined in B.C. in 2021."
They also noted that children under 10, who are not eligible for a vaccine, will be disproportionately affected by the fourth wave, noting they are 36% of the unvaccinated population.
"It is urgent that action be taken to reduce transmission and expand vaccination coverage, in order to avoid overwhelming B.C.'s medical system," they conclude in the report, their eighth update on COVID-19 in B.C.
Watch the embedded video above for an executive summary, or read the text document here.
B.C. update
On Aug. 18, provincial authorities announced 553 new COVID cases, and a total of 5,580 active cases.
107 people are hospitalized and 53 are in critical care. There was one new death, bringing the B.C. total to 1,782.
Interior Health update
On Aug. 18, authorities announced there were 205 new daily cases in Interior Health, bringing the total number of active cases to 3,084.
More on rising regional case rates
For more on rising regional case rates, the latest on Revelstoke immunization rates and more, see this Aug. 17 story.
Revelstoke COVID case rate continues to rise rapidly, doubles in a week
Vaccination registration information
B.C. health authorities and the experts cited in this story all agree: you should get vaccinated against COVID-19. You are less likely to get infected and far less likely to get sick, hospitalized or die.
To book your COVID-19 vaccination appointment in Revelstoke, see this link to Interior Health vaccination registration.
Next update
Revelstokemountaineer.com will provide an update on Revelstoke Local Health Area case rates on the evening of Aug. 20.
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