We asked an expert: What does the mega El Niño mean for the Revelstoke snow season?

A dusting of snow early last week lifted the spirits of snow lovers and anticipation of the coming snow season cranked to life.

With a exceptional El Niño weather pattern being observed right now, speculation is rampant about what it means for the snow season in North America. Serious snow chasers are planning their winter itinerary around finding powder stashes and avoiding slush puddles.

So, what’s up for the Revelstoke-area climate in the Columbia region?

Avalanche Canada’s Revelstoke-based public avalanche warning service manager Karl Klassen is cautious to make a statement on what this might mean for the coming season.

“It’s impossible to predict the quality of a ski season,” he said. “There’s no way to tell what’s going to happen I think. I mean you can get a general feel for what’s happening, it’s in the news right. So El Niño, La Nina, PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), the blob. These are all things people are talking about but until the season is going it’s pretty hard to tell.”

This year has an El Niño coming, which is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. But again, Klassen, who started as a forecaster ten years ago and now manages the program, said this doesn’t mean anything for Revelstoke.

“I have seen El Niño years that are actually pretty good for skiing and I’ve seen non-El Nino years that are terrible,” he said. “So just because there’s an El Niño coming, doesn’t necessary mean it’s going to be a terrible year. It’s all about freezing levels and winds and temperatures and those vary incredibly, from the coast to the Rockies.”

There is long range forecast, if you want to believe it, that it is going to be a warmer than normal winter, and probably drier.

“A dry winter it doesn’t snow, a warm winter it might precipitate but it counts as rain so that’s what we had last year. So either way for skiiers it’s not great,” Klassen said.

“Do you believe it? Do you believe a weather forecast now for three months from now? Personally no, not specifically. I wouldn’t say that December is going to be a crappy month, but if that holds true we will probably have less snow than normal.”

To keep an eye on weather conditions in the lead up to the ski season, check out the Mountain Weather Forecast on Avalanche.ca, under the Avalanche Information tab. Klassen describes it as the best forecast around.

“In the mountains, two days out, it’s all guess work anyway,” Klassen said.

For those getting into the backcountry this winter, he also recommends now as the time to be thinking about refreshing your avalanche training with a refresher course. Also make sure all your equipment is in good working order and take the time to practice using it so it is fresh in your mind.

“As soon as there is enough snow to ski, there is enough snow to avalanche.”