Eight reasons why Columbia River–Revelstoke defied B.C. 2020 election expectations

Political pundits in from media centres in Vancouver and Victoria predicted a tight race between the BC Liberals and BC NDP in Columbia River–Revelstoke, with popular election projection 338canada.com putting the NDP candidate out front the day before election day. In the end, Doug Clovechok earned 48.62% in the initial vote count, besting BC NDP candidate Nicole Cherlet’s 38.35%, and BC Greens candidate Samson Boyer’s 13.03%.

Initial count results for Columbia River-Revelstoke in the 2020 election. Image: Elections BC website

Elections BC sent out a total of 3,019 mail-in ballots in the riding, which won’t be counted in until after 13 days after the election, meaning the result is highly unlikely to change when the official results are finalized. This means BC Liberals incumbent MLA is all but assured the win, a result that has been projected by most media outlets.

For those looking in from the outside, here’s our take on why the result defied general predictions of a much closer race and a potential BC NDP win.

1. The polling? What polling?

The 338canada.com projection for Columbia River-Revelstoke as of Oct. 23, prior to the eleciton. Image: Screengrab of 338.com website

Local political hobbyists like to check websites 338canada.com for the latest in election polls. However, in this riding, the website only makes projections, basically running provincial polls through whatever algorithm they use to factor for the voters in Columbia River–Revelstoke riding. They come with huge plus/minus caveats. These projections have not been accurate in the past, and there was no reason to believe they would be this time, and they weren’t. Local issues matter to local folks and unless you have boots on the ground understanding of diverse local matters across a riding bigger than Vancouver Island, you’re flying blind.

2. Representation is key

When it swims to Victoria, a big fish in our little pond becomes a little fish in a big pond. Federally or provincially, the region votes for a strong representative for the riding, full stop. The vote can swing in any direction based on voters’ perception of who will be the best representative for the riding. They care less about their MLA’s particular political affiliation. The one-month snap election period put the BC NDP candidate Nicole Cherlet at a strong disadvantage, allowing her little time to establish her name beyond Revelstoke, where she is known as a volunteer, businessperson, and city councillor. Most of the riding lives on the other side of Rogers Pass from Revelstoke. Same riding, whole other universe. A candidate can be a big deal in Invermere, but nobody knows them in Revelstoke, and vice versa. Residents of Vancouver, Victoria, or Kelowna can be reasonably assured that their local issues will be somewhat represented regardless of the candidate they vote for, but out here in the political sticks, the MLA is a much more important figure, and voters want to place a safe bet. This time, that favoured the incumbent.

3. The Trans-Canada Highway

Both main parties left the Trans-Canada Highway off their official platforms. People notice that. First the BC Liberals promised twinning from Kamloops to Alberta in 2013, then the BC NDP did the same, but what people here notice is small (yet incredibly expensive) projects barely making a dent of a few kilometres. With COVID-19 costs redlining provincial expenditures, people get a sense that cuts will have to come from somewhere. People want more than vague, open-ended promises and it’s up to political parties to make their case, which neither of them did on this issue. Trans-Canada Highway construction is an identifiable local issue, but the same can be said of many other big regional issues, too.

4. Anemic local media

Us included, having mustered only a few stories about the election — no offense anyone! Local media business, as most people know, is stripped bare and hanging on by its last threads. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated layoffs and staffing cuts in newsrooms across the region and there are so few of us left working. Those who are are left busy juggling an already full schedule and have little time left over for a mid-pandemic snap election. Kudos to our colleagues who put in a solid effort; however, without a more robust media ecosystem, there are scant few resources to engage on provincial issues that matter on an ongoing basis, and there is a knock-on effect to voter engagement during election time. Sure, all candidates put together videos to take it direct to the voter with spends on social media, but at the end of the day it’s a politician talking at you.

5. You can fall off the bandwagon, too

The last time Columbia River–Revelstoke voted in an MLA who served with the governing party was 2001, when Wendy McMahon cruised in on Gordon Campbell’s overwhelming majority victory for the BC Liberals. The MLA then stood by while Campbell eviscerated government services here, such as transferring many court services from Revelstoke to Salmon Arm. The voters’ takeaway was think twice before you go in for the big win, lest you wind up with a yes-person beholden to the party machine and its leader.

6. The people of the Columbia archipelago are hard to define

Columbia River-Revelstoke is larger than Vancouver Island and its population is united in both its similarities and differences. We’re an archipelago of unique remote mountain towns, each with its unique local challenges, varying industries, and special interests. The people are equally diverse. They may work in forestry, transportation, tourism, remote tech, backcountry services and more. We are defined by our communities and care about our neighbours. When your neighbour to the left is a logger, to the right a sawmill employee, across the street a small restaurant owner, and in the basement a lifty and yoga instructor, you think twice about projecting your political stridency publicly, making us a bit more even-keeled and pragmatic about political questions. The region has experienced tremendous national and international in-migration in the past decade, and has a big crossover with seasonal Alberta residents, especially in the east. Even in Revelstoke, where I’ve been reporting for a dozen years, when a big issue crops up, it’s challenging to predict how public opinion will break on it. It can still be surprising.

7. Lacking provincial government engagement

The provincial government has poor engagement in the region. For example, the Trans-Canada Highway is one of the biggest provincial portfolios that can change with the political tides in the riding, but the transportation ministry and government has little effective engagement on what they’re doing. Big projects are announced every now and then, but there is no holistic understanding of how the highway twinning promised by the top two parties is going to play out. Few bother to check the provincial budget and there is little public dialogue about its implications. Most provincial ministries and corporations still effectively stonewall media inquiries and have little effective outreach or engagement on important issues. A largely angry crowd of about 700 residents packed the Revelstoke community centre for a mountain caribou consultation session in 2019, an example of an issue that was at a rolling boil before anyone from government showed up to communicate. Fair or not, this leads to a prevailing feeling that Victoria just doesn’t care about us, and that makes it harder to move the needle in any direction come election time. Any provincial politician or ministry communications staffer wondering how to turn this around in this region should look at the Columbia Basin Trust, the sole shining example of how to do it right in this region.

8. COVID-19

The staffers in John Horgan’s NDP campaign war room were right in their prediction of a solid NDP majority, but what’s good for the careers of politicians and political staffers wasn’t good for their candidate here. Our region’s international destination tourism economy has been badly wounded by COVID-19, severely curtailing so many things that make life great here: entertainment, restaurants, bars, annual events, community gatherings, not to mention an important sector of economic activity that drives it all. Our future is uncertain and people are experiencing life-changing financial losses. Our first COVID-19 winter tourism season is arriving and government’s time would have been better spent helping us prepare. John Horgan campaigned in Revelstoke in early October, but when a video created by the BC NDP at his Centennial Park appearance was circulated on social media, it had an applause track dubbed in. Voter turnout isn’t finalized, but when mail-in ballots are factored in, voter turnout should be about the same as last election, despite a growing population. It’s hard to create election buzz challengers needed during the pandemic buzzkill.